Award: DEB-1237733

The Virginia Coast Reserve Long-Term Ecological Research (VCR LTER) project focused on understanding the ecology of the coastal bays, barrier islands and extensive salt marshes along the Atlantic coast of the Delmarva Peninsula (Figure 1). The Virginia Coast Reserve is within the most extensive stretch of undisturbed coastal barriers in the world, an international biosphere reserve, and an ideal location for assessing climate impacts and ecosystem change in shallow coastal systems. Historically, this undeveloped landscape has been a shifting mosaic, where losses in one region were counterbalanced by gains in another. However, our new 30-year retrospective showed directional change and accelerating ecosystem loss. Barrier island upland area has declined by a third, and island marsh loss due to storm overwash increased, especially in the last decade. Feedbacks between vegetation and sediment transport determined barrier island dune shape, and this affected island migration and the long-term resilience of islands to storms. Nearly half of the upland area on the barrier islands changed from grassland to shrub thickets, similar to transitions observed in other drylands (Figure 2). For coastal systems, this transition was driven by regional climate (higher winter temperatures, lower precipitation) and shrub feedbacks on microclimate (warmer winter and cooler summer temperatures). Shrub thickets may reduce the ability of islands to build upward and migrate landward in response to sea-level rise and storms. In the coastal bays, a 22-year landscape-scale seagrass restoration experiment at VCR LTER was the first to show the role of restoration in reestablishing carbon burial in seagrass meadows, which matched natural systems after a decade (Figure 3). VCR LTER scientists authored the international protocol through Verified Carbon Standards for issuing seagrass restoration carbon offset credits on the voluntary market. Carbon stored in sediments and sequestered in seagrass biomass is vulnerable to marine heatwaves which are projected to increase. Extensive salt marshes (Figure 4) can persist in the face of rising sea-levels by capturing sediments from the water. Long-term VCR LTER and comparative studies defined a threshold sea-level rise rate beyond which salt marshes cannot keep pace and drown. An early warning indicator of this state change was an increase in recovery time following flooding disturbances. Storms caused marsh loss by erosion in proportion to wave energy at the marsh edge. Smaller, more frequent storms, not hurricanes, were responsible for most marsh erosion. This can be reduced by adjacent oyster reefs and seagrass meadows that decrease waves (Figure 5). Scientists from VCR LTER led national and international collaborations, involving multiple LTER and non-LTER sites, on marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms, carbon sequestration, and barrier island dynamics in response to climate drivers. These collaborations leveraged the near pristine nature of the VCR landscape and informed strategies for nature-based solutions to climate change in coastal systems globally. Two synthesis books on barrier island dynamics and ecogeomorphology of tidal marshes were edited by VCR LTER scientists. VCR LTER scientists pioneered novel technologies for measuring benthic metabolism and turbulent flow and mixing in coastal bays and partnered with national and international collaborators to disseminate their use. The scientific literature was the primary way the VCR LTER disseminated information. VCR LTER researchers published 193 papers in scientific journals, with an additional 20 book chapters and 40 theses or dissertations. Additionally, 250 VCR LTER datasets were made available through the Environmental Data Initiative, 53 of which have a duration of 10 years or longer. Professional development workshops in coastal ecology, art and ecology, and oyster restoration provided K-12 teachers with place-based outdoor experiences, curriculum development, classroom resources, and sustained partnerships. Each year VCR LTER engaged more than 50 teachers who reached approximately 8,000 students in the Mid-Atlantic region. Field and classroom experiences provided by VCR LTER reached every student on the Virginia portion of the Delmarva Peninsula, all from majority-minority Title 1 schools, at least twice before graduation. Water quality monitoring, watershed exploration, and meaningful educational watershed experiences with regional partners paralleled VCR LTER studies and trained students in observation, data collection, and analysis. Combining arts and humanities with place-based ecology was a signature of the VCR LTER. The practice of observation provided a shared foundation for VCR LTER?s long running Art and Ecology professional development program. In collaboration with the University of Virginia, VCR LTER launched the Environmental Humanities Conservatory. Sonifying long term data brings together music, ethics, and science to establish a trans-disciplinary community focused on coastal change (Figure 6). The 30-year partnership between VCR and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is a model for data-informed management and resilience planning. Together with TNC, VCR LTER developed the open access Coastal Resilience Mapping Tool using VCR long-term data and models. Staff and researchers from VCR LTER participated in implementing the University of Virginia-led Resilience Action Feasibility Tool to help Virginia localities improve resilience to flooding and other coastal storm hazards. Last Modified: 03/29/2020 Submitted by: John H Porter